By Emese Bartha
FRANKFURT--German consumer confidence is expected to rebound in
November, a sentiment survey released Friday showed, signaling that
citizens of Europe's largest economy have become less sensitive to
conflicts across the globe and their impact on economic growth.
The monthly survey of the GfK market research group shows
consumer confidence rising to 8.5 points for November from an
upwardly revised 8.4 points in October. The first estimate for
October was 8.3 points. Economists polled by The Wall Street
Journal were much gloomier, predicting the November figure to fall
to 8.0 points.
"In October, German consumers were evidently less affected by
the continued problematic geopolitical situation and the resultant
economic slowdown than they had been in the previous month," GfK
said.
GfK uses survey data from the current month to derive a figure
for the month to come.
A recent set of economic indicators have sparked worries among
economists and policy makers that Germany's economy might slow
down. Given that Germany has been the main driver of eurozone
growth through much of the recovery from the financial crisis, a
sharp slowdown of growth, or entry into recession, would
significantly undermine economic prospects in the 18-nation
eurozone.
The German government recently cut its growth outlook for both
2014 and 2015. Still some data remain promising. Unemployment
remains near record lows, while incomes are rising and borrowing
costs are historically low.
GfK said that consumers' economic expectations stabilized in
October, falling only 0.1 point to 4.3, after two months of sharper
declines. In August, this sub-index suffered its sharpest decline
since the survey began in 1980 with a dramatic 35.5-point plunge to
10.4 points, followed by a more moderate fall in September.
Income expectations and a willingness to buy increased slightly
in October, the survey said, helped by the stable situation on the
German labor market. GfK said the labor market should stay this way
at least in the short term.
Experts say that despite some alarming data released earlier
this month, the outlook for the country isn't that bad.
"In our view, the state of the German economy is not as bad as
disappointing August data and recent sentiment declines made some
people believe," said ING Bank's economist Carsten Brzeski, adding
that the strong labor market, solid private consumption and a
recovery of foreign demand on the back of a weaker euro should
support the economy in the final quarter of the year.
Write to Emese Bartha at emese.bartha@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires