The national credit card delinquency rate (the ratio of borrowers
90 or more days past due) increased slightly to 0.75% in Q3 2012
from 0.71% in Q3 2011. This rate had been 0.63% in Q2 2012, a
seasonal low.
Average credit card debt per borrower also increased on a yearly
basis by 4.91%, rising to $4,996 in Q3 2012 from $4,762 in Q3 2011.
On a quarterly basis, average credit card debt was up 0.50%
relative to Q2.
This information is reported by TransUnion and is part of its
ongoing series of quarterly analyses of credit-active U.S.
consumers, evaluating how they are managing credit related to
mortgages, credit cards and auto loans.
"Credit card delinquencies are following a pattern similar to
what we observed in 2011, with declines in the first two quarters
of the year followed by an increase in the third," said Ezra
Becker, vice president of research and consulting in TransUnion's
financial services business unit. "That seasonal consistency is
encouraging. Credit card debt trends in 2012 also are mirroring
2011, with a decrease in the first quarter followed by two
increases over the next six months. With both delinquencies and
debt levels remaining quite low relative to historical norms, we
are confident in the continued stability of credit card usage
patterns in the short term."
New credit card originations grew 3.14% in Q2 2012 relative to
Q2 2011. The share of non-prime, higher-risk originations (with a
VantageScore® credit score lower than 700 on a scale of 501-990)
was 29.55% in the second quarter of the year, slightly higher than
one year ago (29.28% in Q2 2011), and much higher than the 23.86%
observed in Q2 2010. Credit card originations are analyzed one
quarter in arrears, to account for the reporting lag of new
accounts.
"Non-prime borrowers continue to gain more access to credit. In
conjunction with the growth in the overall number of card
originations in the last few years, it means that the credit card
pie is bigger, and non-prime consumers are getting a bigger slice
of that pie," said Becker. "It is possible that the slight increase
in delinquencies year over year can be attributed in part to the
increased share among non-prime borrowers of new accounts, but even
so these delinquency numbers are not a cause for concern. We've
found that consumers continue to value their credit cards more than
ever, and will likely do so at least until unemployment further
abates."
Thirty-six states saw increases in their credit card delinquency
rates year over year, while nine states and the District of
Columbia saw decreases. No changes were observed in five states.
California and Nevada, two states hardest hit by the recession,
continued to see decreases in their card delinquency rates.
On a more granular level, 64% of metropolitan statistical areas
(MSAs) saw increases in their respective credit card delinquency
rates in Q3 2012 relative to one year ago. This is only slightly
higher than last quarter, when 62% of MSAs experienced a
year-over-year increase.
Based on current economic assumptions, TransUnion forecasts
credit card delinquencies to remain near present-day levels with
potentially some seasonal fluctuations through the end of 2012.
This forecast is based on seasonality effects and various other
economic factors such as anticipated gross state product, consumer
sentiment, disposable income, and employment conditions. The
forecast changes as the economy deviates from a conservative
economic forecast, if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy
affecting recovery, or if lenders materially change their
underwriting standards.
Q3 2012 Credit Card Statistics - Delinquency
Rates
Quarter over Quarter Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Pct. Change
USA 0.63% 0.75% 19.05%
Year over year Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Pct. Change
USA 0.71% 0.75% 5.63%
Highest Credit Card Delinquency States Q3 2012
Mississippi 1.16%
--------------
West Virginia 1.06%
--------------
Alabama 1.04%
--------------
Louisiana 1.01%
Lowest Credit Card Delinquency States Q3 2012
North Dakota 0.38%
----------
Minnesota and South Dakota 0.50%
----------
Montana 0.52%
Top 3 Year-over-Year Increases Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Pct. Change
Massachusetts 0.63% 0.92% 46.03%
------------ ------------ ------------
West Virginia 0.85% 1.06% 24.71%
------------ ------------ ------------
Alaska 0.45% 0.53% 17.78%
Top 3 Year-over-Year Declines Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Pct. Change
District of Columbia 0.73% 0.57% (21.92%)
------------ ------------ ------------
Oregon 0.67% 0.59% (11.94%)
------------ ------------ ------------
North Dakota 0.42% 0.38% (9.52%)
Q3 2012 Credit Card Statistics - Credit Card
Debt Per Borrower
Quarter-over-Quarter Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Pct. Change
USA $ 4,971 $ 4,996 0.50%
Year-over-Year Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Pct. Change
USA $ 4,762 $ 4,996 4.90%
Highest Credit Card Debt States Q3 2012
Alaska $ 7,094
-----------
Colorado $ 5,696
-----------
Connecticut and North Carolina $ 5,634
Lowest Credit Card Debt States Q3 2012
Iowa $ 3,883
-----------
North Dakota $ 3,978
-----------
South Dakota $ 4,204
-----------
West Virginia $ 4,319
Top 3 Year-over-Year Increases Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Pct. Change
New Jersey $ 5,033 $ 5,560 10.46%
------------- ------------- ------------
New Mexico $ 4,544 $ 4,992 9.86%
------------- ------------- ------------
Illinois $ 4,738 $ 5,167 9.06%
Top 3 Year-over-Year Declines Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Pct. Change
North Dakota $ 4,078 $ 3,978 (2.45%)
------------- ------------- ------------
Idaho $ 4,606 $ 4,535 (1.54%)
------------- ------------- ------------
Mississippi $ 4,751 $ 4,693 (1.21%)
Supporting Resources/Links TransUnion
Trend Data Interactive U.S. Map TransUnion 2Q12 Credit Card
Statistics TransUnion Credit Monitoring Study TransUnion Payment
Hierarchy Study TransUnion Deleveraging Analysis TransUnion on
Twitter
TransUnion's Trend Data database
TransUnion's Trend Data is a one-of-a-kind database consisting of
27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled every
quarter from TransUnion's national consumer credit database. Each
record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrate
consumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992, TransUnion has
been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels. For the purpose
of this analysis, the term "credit card" refers to those issued by
banks.
About TransUnion As a global leader in
information and risk management, TransUnion creates advantages for
millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and
delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve
efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by
delivering high quality data, and integrating advanced analytics
and enhanced decision-making capabilities. For consumers,
TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help
manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals.
Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build
stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in
Chicago, TransUnion reaches businesses and consumers in 25
countries around the world. For more information, visit
www.transunion.com.
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Contact: Dave Blumberg TransUnion E-mail: Email Contact
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