2012 'State Fair' Swine Flu H3N2 Outbreak in U.S. Was Correctly
Predicted by Increase in Genomic Replikin®Count Two Years Earlier
LONDON, Nov. 29, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Bioradar UK Ltd
today concluded that an increase in the genomic
Replikin®Counts of H3N2 virus (Swine Flu) in the U.S.
from 2008 to 2011 correctly predicted the 'State Fair' H3N2 swine
flu outbreaks of this past summer in pigs and children (see photo).
The same method measuring genomic H1N1 in Mexico also predicted the 2009 Pandemic a year
before its emergence, and with H5N1 in Cambodia, two years before the recent
outbreaks (1-5).
(Photo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20121129/PH21413
)
In the recent 'State Fair' summer 2012 outbreaks, the contacts
between pigs and children was well documented as was the emergence
of viral disease. In the present study, 7,804 replikins infectivity
gene sequences and 7,112 replikins lethality gene sequences were
analyzed, all that were present in Pubmed bank listings from 1968
to 2011. The evolution of H3N2 virus infectivity gene
Replikin®Counts in the USA, were relatively constant at a low level
of rapid replication, that is with Counts below 4.0 Replikins (per
100 genomic amino acids).
The Counts increased markedly from 2008 to 2011 so that in 2011,
21.9% of the sequences in the virus population had Counts greater
than 4.0, the highest on Pubmed record since 1968 and sixty times
higher than the Counts 1968-1997. This peak Count of 2011 was
followed by the H3N2 outbreak in 2012 (see photo). As in other
influenza strains, some Replikin sequences in H3N2 genes were found
to be conserved back to the 1960s, the earliest dates of H3N2
sequences reported on Pubmed, helping in the formulation of lasting
vaccines.
No instance has been observed to date in which a statistically
significant (p<0.001) increase or decrease in
Replikin®Counts did not correlate with an outbreak or
clinical decrease respectively and there were no 'false negatives'
(1-5): H1N1 (2008 prediction for the 2009 pandemic, 2010 for
the 2010 outbreak, 2011 for 2012 outbreak); H5N1 (1996 for 1997,
2005 for 2006-07, 2009 for 2011 outbreak); three influenza
pandemics of the past century; SARS (2003 for 2004); Foot and Mouth
Disease (2010 for 2011-12); E. Coli (2005-2010 for 2011); and
malaria (for 1998-2006 decrease in mortality).
Because all of the data in eight trials indicate that the rising
Replikin®Count is accurately predictive of outbreaks,
Bioradar UK Ltd has proposed that it is now time to try to prevent
the next flu outbreaks. The risks of human as well as animal
mortality are for the first time predictable, the specific Replikin
chemistry of the coming pathogen's genome for the first time
predictable, and time is thus made available for the first time,
one to two years in advance, to organize public health responses
and to produce, to adequately test and to distribute vaccines and
therapeutic agents.
Since the geographic site of the outbreak is for the first time
predictable by the Replikin Counts, as shown by Bioradar in
Mexico, in Indonesia, in Cambodia, and now in the U.S. (1-5), it is
hoped that national governments, medical schools, and
pharmaceutical companies now will join with Bioradar UK Ltd. to
test the possibility that the development of outbreaks and
pandemics in their geographic site may actually be prevented.
Synthetic Replikin TransFlu®Vaccines (including H3N2 2012) are
available to institutions for testing.
Contact Replikins: 646-320-5910; sbogoch@replikins.com
http://www.replikins.com/
References:
1. <Replikins.com>website, 2006-2012
2. Bogoch, S. and Bogoch, E.S. Genome Replikin Count™ Predicts
Increased Infectivity/Lethality of Viruses. Nature Precedings
npre20127144. O4April 2012.
3. Bogoch, S. and Bogoch, E.S. Prediction of specific virus
outbreaks made from the increased concentration of a new class of
virus genomic peptides, replikins. Nature Precedings
doi:10.1038/npre.2011.6279.1.23Aug 2011.
4. Bogoch,S. and Bogoch, ES. Bogoch Replikins Pandemic Prevention:
Increase of Strain-Specific Influenza Genomic Replikin Counts,
Having Predicted Outbreaks and their Location Seven Times
Consecutively, Up to Two Years in Advance, Provides Time for
Prevention of Pandemics. Nature
Precedings.doi:10.1038/npre.2012.6952.1 01
March, 2012
5. UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) discussion of
Replikins, DVM Newsmagazine, (Sept. 8,
2011). Reproduced in Report #42 , Replikins.com
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SOURCE Replikins