By James Ramage
The dollar stumbled against the euro and the yen Thursday after
U.S. data indicated the labor market's gains remain uneven, further
denting investors' expectations for higher interest rates by
September.
The dollar declined against the common currency, with one euro
buying $1.1099, from $1.1056 before the jobs data were released.
The euro increased 0.4% against the dollar for the session. The
U.S. currency fell against the Japanese currency to Y123.06, from
Y123.68 ahead of the numbers, now 0.1% lower for the day.
The U.S. added 223,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis last
month, from 254,000 in May, a number that was revised down from
280,000, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast 233,000
jobs would be created in June. The unemployment rate fell to 5.3%
from 5.5%, below expectations of 5.4%.
Much of the dollar's move on Thursday stemmed from investors who
had been hoping for a surge in the report but were disappointed,
Steven Englander, head of developed-market strategy at Citigroup
Inc., wrote in a research note. Solid numbers for the ADP payrolls
report, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing
employment index and recent weekly jobless claims had ramped up
expectations for stellar jobs numbers in June.
"For the dollar, we would expect moderate selling--no
indications that investors were overly long going into the number,
so the [dollar selling] may be muted," Mr. Englander wrote. "It is
hard to believe that a mediocre but not terrible outcome will lead
to big position-taking in advance of the Greek referendum."
Hourly earnings, a metric the Federal Reserve has said must rise
at a faster pace, held steady in June. Economists had expected a
0.2% increase in wages from May.
The Fed will most likely ignore the weak wage number, as long as
it is a one-time event, said Ian Gordon, currency strategist at
Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The overall labor market has been
tightening, he added, which should eventually apply upward pressure
on wages and inflation.
Given signs of recent caution by the U.S. central bank, as well
as uncertainty over the outcome of the Greek referendum on Sunday
and the country's future in the euro area, the market has
discounted a September liftoff date for interest rates.
"But if the data continues to strengthen, as many in the market
expect," Mr. Gordon said, "then investors will likely re-center
their expectations around September for the Fed to raise interest
rates, and that will be supportive for the dollar."
The Fed has said it is following data for inflation and
employment closely and would consider raising short-term interest
rates when the U.S. economy has strengthened sufficiently in those
areas. Higher borrowing costs in the U.S. would draw more
yield-hungry investors to the dollar, especially as Europe and
Japan are moving to stimulate their economies through looser
monetary policy.
In other trade, the Swedish krona fell after the Riksbank cut
main interest rate further into negative territory and enlarged its
asset-purchase program. The euro rose 1.2% against the Swedish
currency to 9.3768 kronor, while the dollar gained 0.8% to 8.4475
kronor.
Write to James Ramage at james.ramage@wsj.com