ECB Ready to Expand Stimulus Programs -- 2nd Update
September 03 2015 - 10:29AM
Dow Jones News
By Todd Buell in Frankfurt and Paul Hannon in London
FRANKFURT--European Central Bank President Mario Draghi
indicated on Thursday that the bank stands ready to expand its
stimulus programs if slowdowns in large developing economies and
turbulence in financial markets hinder its ability to boost
inflation to a target of just under 2%.
In a news conference, Mr. Draghi projected slower-than-expected
economic growth in the eurozone, as well as lower inflation rates,
as exports to China and other developing economies are likely to be
less than previously hoped.
He repeatedly stressed the central bank's "willingness and
ability to act if warranted," suggesting the ECB could broaden its
stimulus programs.
Mr. Draghi's comments weakened the euro's exchange rate and sent
European shares higher as investors anticipated a fresh round of
stimulus. However, he said policy makers hadn't discussed the size
of the central bank's bond buying program, or its preferred options
should it come to adding fresh stimulus.
"We aren't there yet," he said.
Mr. Draghi said an "interim evaluation" of the impact of recent
turbulence in global financial markets and signs of a slowdown in
China, points to "continued, though somewhat weaker economic
recovery, and a slower increase in inflation rates compared with
recent expectations."
He added that while the "downside risks" to growth and inflation
have increased, it was possible recent developments in financial
markets would be "mainly transitory."
"We had a worsening of the situation in several emerging market
economies, and it's unlikely these challenges are going to be
quickly reversed," Mr. Draghi said. "Secondly, we had a tightening
of financial conditions across the board. We'll have to see whether
this is short-term volatility, or is permanent."
Mr. Draghi said he expects Chinese officials to provide more
details of their plans for tackling the economic slowdown and stock
market falls during a meeting of finance ministers and central bank
chiefs from the group of 20 largest economies in Ankara,
Turkey.
"That is going to be one of the major themes," he said. "We do
expect to have much more visibility in the coming days than we do
now."
Earlier Thursday, the ECB left its main policy rate for its
regular loans to banks at 0.05%. It also left its deposit rate, the
rate it pays for banks to park excess funds overnight, at minus
0.20%, meaning that banks continue to pay to park cash with the
ECB.
Since March, the ECB has purchased EUR60 billion ($68 billion) a
month in mostly government bonds in an effort to revive inflation
and growth in the currency bloc by adding to the money supply. The
program is intended to run through September 2016, or until
inflation is back to target.
Mr. Draghi announced a slight change to the program that would
allow the central bank to buy a larger share of each individual
bond issue, raising its limit to 33% from 25%. That should make it
easier for the central bank to find the bonds it needs to complete
the program, or increase it if needed.
"Technical aspects will not stop the full implementation of the
program, " he said.
Recent data on bank lending to households and companies suggest
the ECB's stimulus is starting to find its way into the economy.
But there is concern that QE isn't doing enough to bring inflation
back to the ECB's medium-term target of just below 2%.
The most recent data, published Monday, showed annual inflation
in the currency bloc at only 0.2% in August.
Lower energy prices and upward pressure on the euro, stemming
from uncertainty about the timing of rate rises in the U.S., are
keeping consumer price pressures subdued. Meanwhile, signs of
slowing in China have raised concerns that European exports may not
be as strong as expected.
The ECB's economists lowered their forecasts for inflation over
coming years, and indication that policy makers may have to expand
their bond buying program if they are to succeed in raising the
inflation rate to their target.
The economists now expect an inflation rate of 0.1% in 2015,
1.1% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017. In June, they forecast a rate of
1.8% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016 and 0.3% this year.
They also cut their growth forecasts, and now expect the
eurozone economy to grow by 1.4% this year, 1.7% in 2016 and 1.8%
in 2017. In June, they forecast growth of 1.5% in 2015, 1.9% next
year and 2% in 2017.
Write to Todd Buell at todd.buell@wsj.com and Paul Hannon at
paul.hannon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 03, 2015 10:14 ET (14:14 GMT)
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