ECB Members Saw Heightened Downside Risks to Inflation in Sept -- 2nd Update
October 08 2015 - 9:28AM
Dow Jones News
By Brian Blackstone
FRANKFURT--European Central Bank officials determined that
downside risks to inflation intensified over the summer, though
they need more time to gauge the impact of financial-market
volatility and slower growth in China, according to the minutes of
the bank's Sept. 3 policy meeting released on Thursday.
Officials agreed to emphasize the ECB's willingness to increase
its stimulus programs to address the risks of too-low
inflation.
"There was broad agreement that the overall economic situation
in the euro area had become more challenging since before the
summer," the ECB said in the meeting accounts.
Officials broadly concurred that, while volatility in financial
markets reflected heightened risk over the economic outlook, "it
was too early to form a sound judgment" on whether it would have a
long-lasting impact on growth and inflation, according to the
minutes.
At its Sept. 3 meeting, ECB officials raised the possibility
that they would beef up their EUR60 billion ($68 billion) a month
bond-buying program, which was launched in March and is intended to
run through September 2016.
Asset purchases "are intended to run until the end of September
2016, or beyond, if necessary," ECB President Mario Draghi said in
his introductory statement to a news conference after the
meeting.
Economists interpreted the insertion of the phrase "or beyond,"
which wasn't in previous introductory statements, as a sign that
the bank could extend its more than EUR1 trillion ($1.1 trillion)
bond-purchase program, known as quantitative easing, beyond its
targeted end date.
Jonathan Loynes, economist at consultancy Capital Economics,
said the meeting minutes supported the view that the bond buying
plan will be ramped up to around EUR80 billion a month at one of
the ECB's next two policy meetings.
A recent report showing consumer prices fell 0.1% in September
from the previous year--far below the ECB's target of annual
consumer price growth near 2%--which further fanned hopes that the
ECB will eventually increase its quantitative-easing program.
Yet recent comments by ECB officials suggest they are in no
immediate hurry to ramp up the bond-buying program while they
assess the wider economic context of choppy financial markets, weak
oil prices, and slowing growth in China among other emerging
markets.
According to the meeting minutes, officials stressed that the
bond purchase program is only about one-third complete, "implying
that a substantial degree of accommodation was still in the
pipeline."
Meanwhile, "uncertainty arising from developments in economic
and financial conditions in emerging market economies, particularly
China, had clearly increased," according to the minutes.
But gauging developments in China "was very challenging," the
minutes stated, "and more time and analysis were needed these
developments."
Still, the minutes alluded to some positive developments in
Europe's economy. Unemployment has fallen and sentiment data have
improved, the ECB noted, while fiscal belt-tightening by euro
countries was no longer a drag on economic activity.
Notably, the ECB also said that price and cost adjustments
between euro members, known as internal devaluation, appeared to be
"largely complete."
Write to Brian Blackstone at brian.blackstone@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 08, 2015 09:13 ET (13:13 GMT)
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